Who is behind the Lebanon rockets?
In July 2006, Israeli troops were two weeks into their unsuccessful campaign to rescue captured soldier Gilad Shalit when the Shia Muslim political and militant movement attacked from the north.
Its fighters launched dozens of Katyusha rockets and mortars at Israel and seized two more soldiers and killed eight others in cross-border raids.
It was seen as a dramatic gesture of solidarity with the Palestinians, but Israel’s response was far more dramatic and devastating to Lebanon.
Hezbollah said it wanted to exchange the two soldiers for thousands of Palestinians held in Israeli detention.
What it got was a 34-day onslaught from the Israeli military, costing more than 1,000 lives, mostly Lebanese civilians.
About 160 Israelis were killed, mostly soldiers, in fighting and rocket fire from Hezbollah. Hundreds of thousands of civilians were displaced on either side.
Events in Lebanon during the summer of 2006 ended up completely overshadowing what had been going on in Gaza.
Intense speculation
We are now nearly two weeks into Israel’s campaign to hit the Hamas militant movement in Gaza, an attempt to reduce rocket fire by Palestinian militants.
The news of rockets being fired from Lebanon will have raised alarm of a possible serious escalation in this bloody New Year period.
Intense speculation has focused on whether or not Hezbollah was responsible for Thursday’s rocket fire or whether it was Palestinian militant groups in exile in refugee camps in Lebanon.
Most analysts have concluded it is unlikely to be Hezbollah – despite recent fiery rhetoric from the group’s leader Hassan Nasrallah about the possibility of renewed conflict with Israel.
For a start, there has been no Hezbollah claim of responsibility, which is not the group’s usual style.
It has a reputation, even among Israelis, for being the most credible conveyor of information about its activities – when it chooses to convey such information.
Political timing
There is also the question of the scale of the attack – so far it is much smaller than in July 2006, and it is widely thought that Hezbollah would be capable of a much heavier blow if it had wanted.
The rockets seem to be short-range, and probably were fired from south of the Litani river, which is under control of the Unifil peacekeeping force and the Lebanese regular army.
It has been like this since the 2006 ceasefire which determined an end to all armed activity by militants between the Litani and the Israeli border.
It is widely assumed that Hezbollah still operates under cover in this area, but it is doubtful at this time that they would attempt such a blatant challenge to UN authority.
This is because the group is now part of the Lebanese government – with a power of veto on legislation – so it would be unlikely to want to jeopardise that position.
Another question regarding such attacks is whether Hezbollah somehow assisted, as they are launched from an area where – by reputation – not a leaf can move without its people knowing about it.
If so, the latest attack may be a way for Hezbollah to show solidarity with Gaza without provoking a massive Israeli retaliation.
After all, last year Israeli officials threatened that any attack from Hezbollah would trigger that would a retaliation against all of Lebanon that would make 2006 seem mild.
Difficult terrain
So who would attack Israel like this? Lebanon plays host to 400,000 Palestinian refugees, a reservoir of anger and militancy fuelled by 60 years of exile from what they consider as their land.
There are large refugee camps around Tyre and Sidon in southern Lebanon and militant groups have been known to launch rockets at Israel.
The last occasion of rocket fire was in January 2008, which was linked to the visit of US President George W Bush to Israel.
Hezbollah denied responsibility for that attack and the Israeli military blamed an unnamed Palestinian organisation.
But the incident showed the Unifil/Lebanese army regime was not in total control south of the Litani – notoriously difficult terrain to secure completely, as the Israeli army found to its cost during its long occupation of the area.
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